13th May, 2024 @ 10:25 pm

The Triple Crown series in the United States is well underway following a thrilling renewal of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. One of the closest finishes in the race’s 150th renewal caught the imagination of fans from across the world, but it was ultimately Mystik Dan that claimed victory after holding off the late surges from Forever Young and Sierra Leone. 

However, all the attention now turns toward the Preakness Stakes, which will be staged at Pimlico just two weeks after the Derby at Churchill Downs. But, what are some of the key tips to consider before making selections on the Middle Jewel in the Triple Crown?

Mystik Dan To Bypass Preakness?

The big news story following the Derby success achieved by Mystik Dan was the possibility that the Kenneth McPeek runner may look to bypass the Preakness in favour of a tilt in the Belmont Stakes. Derby winners skipping the Preakness is by no means a new trend, with Rich Strike also opting for the Derby-Belmont Stakes path in 2021. 

However, there will clearly be huge disappointment from racing fans, as it will mean that there won’t be another Triple Crown winner added to the history books this year.

Derby Runners vs Fresh Horses

The Preakness Stakes brings fresh questions for bettors to answer, as they will typically need to weigh up the prospect of handicapping horses that have opted to bypass the Kentucky Derby. 

That has been a successful route in recent years, with National Treasure becoming the latest runner that didn’t line up in the Derby to have claimed success in the Preakness. Winning each of the opening two legs of the Triple Crown is no easy feat, with Justify becoming just the fifth runner to the double since 2005. 

Mage took his chance in the Preakness last year, but his Derby exploits eventually took their toll, as he could only finish third, and just over two lengths behind National Treasure. That is an important consideration to assess should one of the runners that had a hard race in the Derby take their chance at Pimlico.

You can check the list of current contenders here: https://www.twinspires.com/preakness-stakes/contenders/ 

Bob Baffert Factor

Bob Baffert was once again ineligible to make entries for the Derby this year, as the Hall of Famer continues his punishment following Medina Spirit’s disqualification in the race in 2021. However, that means all Baffert’s runners in the race will come to Pimlico much fresher than many of their rivals, and he could boast a strong hand once again in 2024. Imagination is likely to be the ride for Frankie Dettori this year, and positives can certainly be taken from his second in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. 

Muth could be a short price favourite for the Preakness after capturing the imagination throughout his career to this point. He was excellent once again when landing the G1 Arkansas Derby at the end of March, which could prove to be an important form line after finishing six lengths clear of Derby victory Mystik Dan at Oaklawn Park. 

Other Fresh Runners

While a lot of the Baffert runners will be among the favourites for the Preakness, it will also be worth considering the likely contenders from other yards that will arrive at Pimlico fresher than most. Patriot Spirit could be among the interesting runners in the race for trainer Michael Campbell. The three-year-old was the winner of the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne in impressive fashion, and could be a lively outsider to upset the odds in the Preakness.

D. Wayne Lukas will likely target the Preakness with a number of runners this year, but none may be as interesting as Seize The Grey. The three-year-old was a winner on the undercard to the Derby, as he stormed clear to land the G2 Pat Day Mile. There could be further improvement from this son of Arrogate over the Preakness trip.

Potential Runners From the Derby

With Mystik Dan likely to overlook the Preakness in favour of a run in the Belmont Stakes, the only likely runner at this stage to line up in each of the opening two legs of the Triple Crown is Just Steel. The runner for trainer D. Wayne Lukas struggled to hold his position in the Derby, and eventually finished back in 17th. 

However, there is a clear argument that he may have used less energy than those competing for the victory, so he could be fresher than most for the Preakness. The son of Justify finished ahead of Mystik Dan when finishing second to Muth in the G1 Arkansas Derby, which reversed the form of the second in the G3 Southwest Stakes. He has already been highly tried at the top level, but he is much better than his finishing position in the Kentucky Derby suggests so there would be little surprise to see him play a role in the Preakness.