One of the many amazing aspects of the world of football is the regional differences among top-flight leagues. This can play out in many ways, whether that’s the pace of the moment-to-moment play in big games, or the proportion of face-offs that end in a draw. Various factors determine the predictability of match outcomes, and that’s typified by the dichotomy between Major League Soccer (MLS) in the US and the Canadian Premier League (CPL) north of the border.

So, what exactly makes it harder to make accurate MLS predictions compared with the CPL? Here’s the lowdown.

Star Power & Spending Caps

At a basic level, there’s more volatility in MLS games because the rules around how much players can be paid are more flexible than in Canada. The top teams in America have the means to splash out tens of millions on the best players on the planet, although not every side has the budget or the draw to compete on level terms with their better-funded rivals. This leads to more lopsided showdowns, where you’ll have world-class players like Lionel Messi sharing the pitch with domestic pros earning a league-average salary of around $220,000 annually.

The CPL’s cap on player pay is far stricter, and anyway, there’s simply less money in the game, so these mismatches in talent are rare.  Of all the ways to soccer bet, choosing a CPL team to back presents less risk, at least on paper, because sides generally rely on long-term tactical continuity, making core strength easier to gauge from season to season.

The Balancing Power of League Scale

The CPL is an eight-team league, while MLS has 30 teams across a couple of conferences, so the scale of each is entirely different. In the CPL’s case, it’s a little more like the Scottish Premier League, where there are just a few dominant teams that have a track record of performing consistently better than their regional rivals, which again drives down volatility and reduces randomness in game outcomes.

Conversely, the scope of MLS creates unbalanced scheduling and leaves less data to go on when two teams get together, because there’s no equality in how many times the sides share the pitch each season. Likewise, there’s much more travel involved in MLS games, which can throw unexpected issues into the mix when one side has to slog halfway across a continent to play.

The Fan Influence

There are many football fans in the US and Canada, although MLS teams face a steeper uphill climb to secure loyal local support because there are simply so many other sports teams vying for fans' attention in major cities. Meanwhile, the CPL’s smaller scale and regional influence mean things like attendance levels and grassroots support are that bit more consistent.

Put simply, the unpredictability of MLS games is baked into the way high-level football is handled in the US as a whole. Likewise, the CPL’s predictability stems from how the league is structured. So it’s possible for bettors to pick one or the other based on their preferences for risk and volatility.